K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 07:30 · FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Likeliest: FC Seoul win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Seoul60%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Gimcheon Sangmu FC17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Seoul
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Melbourne Victory (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Jeju SK (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Pohang Steelers (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · v Persib Bandung (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)2-1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v FC Anyang (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Gangwon FC (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Pohang Steelers (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Seoul | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 1-7-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-2 | 2-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.