Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 20 · 18:15 · FC Sion vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: FC Sion win · 55%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Sion55%23%+32
OursMarket
Draw23%23%+1
OursMarket
AFC Ajax22%54%−33
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 59% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 46% | +33 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 77% | −32 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 30% | +42 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Sion
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 13 · v FC Noah (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Vaduz (H)3-2
- Aug 6 · at FC Noah (A)2-2
- Aug 2 · v FC Luzern (H)3-0
- Jul 30 · v BATE Borisov (H)4-0
AFC Ajax
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Aug 16 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Aug 13 · at Shelbourne (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
- Aug 6 · v Shelbourne (H)3-1
- Jul 30 · v FK Vojvodina (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Sion | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-1 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.