Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 · FC Sion vs FC Lausanne-Sport
Likeliest: FC Sion win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Sion66%63%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
FC Lausanne-Sport15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Sion
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at SC Cham (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Servette FC (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v FC Zürich (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)5-2
- Sep 12 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)3-0
FC Lausanne-Sport
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Winkeln SG (A)7-0
- Oct 11 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v FC Lugano (H)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Servette FC (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Vaduz (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Sion | FC Lausanne-Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.