Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:30 · FC Sion vs FC Thun
Likeliest: FC Sion win · 52%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Sion52%56%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−2
OursMarket
FC Thun27%21%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 68% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 66% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 73% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Sion
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 3 · at Basel (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Lugano (H)1-2
- Aug 27 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-5
- Aug 20 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-4
- Aug 13 · v FC Noah (H)2-1
FC Thun
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 2 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)4-3
- Aug 27 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-2
- Aug 20 · at Lech Poznań (A)0-7
- Aug 13 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | FC Sion | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.