Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:30 · FC Sion vs FC Zürich
Likeliest: FC Sion win · 66%
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Sion66%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%20%−2
OursMarket
FC Zürich16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 80% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Sion
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 15 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)5-2
- Sep 12 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v FC Thun (H)3-2
- Sep 3 · at Basel (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Lugano (H)1-2
FC Zürich
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v FC Vaduz (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · v Young Boys (H)2-4
- Aug 29 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Basel (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Sion | FC Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.