Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:00 · FC Slovan Liberec vs 1. FC Slovácko
Likeliest: FC Slovan Liberec win · 65%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Slovan Liberec65%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
1. FC Slovácko13%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Slovan Liberec
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at SK Líšeň (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · at FC Sellier & Bellot Vlašim (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Mladá Boleslav (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at FK Jablonec (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)2-0
1. FC Slovácko
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Baník Ostrava (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at FK Neratovice-Byškovice (A)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v FK Pardubice (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Slovan Liberec | 1. FC Slovácko |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.