Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · FC Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava
Likeliest: FC Slovan Liberec win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Slovan Liberec60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Baník Ostrava17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Slovan Liberec
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at SK Sigma Olomouc (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v 1. FC Slovácko (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at SK Líšeň (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · at FC Sellier & Bellot Vlašim (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Mladá Boleslav (H)3-0
Baník Ostrava
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · at SK Kladno (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at 1. FC Slovácko (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v FK Pardubice (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Slovan Liberec | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.