Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:30 · FC St. Gallen 1879 vs FC Lausanne-Sport
Likeliest: FC St. Gallen 1879 win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC St. Gallen 187959%61%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
FC Lausanne-Sport18%18%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 68% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 39% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC St. Gallen 1879
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Basel (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · at FC Lugano (A)1-4
- Sep 12 · v FC Sion (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Servette FC (A)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)0-2
FC Lausanne-Sport
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v FC Lugano (H)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Servette FC (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Vaduz (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · at FC Thun (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v FC Zürich (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | FC St. Gallen 1879 | FC Lausanne-Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 1-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.