Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sat, Sep 12 · 16:00 · FC St. Gallen 1879 vs FC Sion
Likeliest: FC St. Gallen 1879 win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC St. Gallen 187944%45%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Sion30%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC St. Gallen 1879
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 6 · at Servette FC (A)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Grasshopper Club Zürich (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Thun (H)3-4
- Aug 27 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)2-3
- Aug 20 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)0-1
FC Sion
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 6 · v FC Thun (H)3-2
- Sep 3 · at Basel (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Lugano (H)1-2
- Aug 27 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-5
- Aug 20 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | FC St. Gallen 1879 | FC Sion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.