2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:30 · FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
Likeliest: FC St. Pauli win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC St. Pauli57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Karlsruher SC21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC St. Pauli
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Energie Cottbus (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)0-2
Karlsruher SC
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Energie Cottbus (H)0-3
- Sep 4 · at Hannover 96 (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-5
- Aug 21 · at Preußen Münster (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC St. Pauli | Karlsruher SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.