2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 18:30 · FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC St. Pauli36%37%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg39%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC St. Pauli
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 4 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)0-2
- Aug 14 · at Holstein Kiel (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1-1
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Energie Cottbus (H)4-4
- Aug 29 · at Karlsruher SC (A)5-2
- Aug 24 · at VSG Altglienicke (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-0
- Aug 8 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-2 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.