Schweizer Cup (Switzerland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 17:00 · FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge FC
Likeliest: FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy50%57%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+4
OursMarket
Étoile Carouge FC23%20%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 74% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · at FC Rapperswil-Jona (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · v FC Wil 1900 (H)4-0
- Sep 4 · at SC Kriens (A)2-0
- Sep 1 · v Étoile Carouge FC (H)3-0
Étoile Carouge FC
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v Yverdon-Sport FC (H)0-2
- Sep 18 · at SC Kriens (A)1-4
- Sep 11 · v FC Winterthur (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · v FC Wil 1900 (H)1-1
- Sep 1 · at FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy | Étoile Carouge FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.