Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:30 · FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchâtel Xamax
Likeliest: FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy win · 57%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy57%59%−2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Neuchâtel Xamax21%19%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 64% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 41% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 16 · v Étoile Carouge FC (H)3-0
- Oct 9 · at FC Rapperswil-Jona (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · v FC Wil 1900 (H)4-0
- Sep 4 · at SC Kriens (A)2-0
Neuchâtel Xamax
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Langenthal (A)3-2
- Oct 9 · v FC Winterthur (H)3-0
- Sep 18 · v FC Rapperswil-Jona (H)0-3
- Sep 11 · at Stade Nyonnais (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · at FC Winterthur (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy | Neuchâtel Xamax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 4-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.