Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Oct 4 · 20:00 · FC Supra Du Quebec vs Pacific FC
Likeliest: FC Supra Du Quebec win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Supra Du Quebec52%57%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+3
OursMarket
Pacific FC22%21%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 43% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Supra Du Quebec
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 26 · at Cavalry FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Vancouver FC (A)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Forge FC (H)1-0
Pacific FC
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 27 · at York United FC (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Cavalry FC (H)0-1
- Sep 9 · at York United FC (A)3-3
- Sep 5 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Supra Du Quebec | Pacific FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-4 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.