Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:00 · FC Supra Du Quebec vs Vancouver FC
Likeliest: FC Supra Du Quebec win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Supra Du Quebec49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Vancouver FC27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Supra Du Quebec
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 7 · at York United FC (A)2-1
- Oct 4 · v Pacific FC (H)5-0
- Sep 26 · at Cavalry FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)0-2
Vancouver FC
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · v Forge FC (H)1-1
- Sep 24 · v York United FC (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Pacific FC (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at York United FC (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Supra Du Quebec | Vancouver FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-4 | 2-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.