USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · FC Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City FC
Likeliest: FC Tampa Bay Rowdies win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Tampa Bay Rowdies49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Detroit City FC18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Indy Eleven (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v Miami FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at San Antonio FC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Hartford Athletic (A)1-3
Detroit City FC
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Rhode Island FC (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)1-0
- Sep 30 · at Brooklyn FC (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Tampa Bay Rowdies | Detroit City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-3 | 4-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.