USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:30 · FC Tampa Bay Rowdies vs SC Jacksonville
Likeliest: FC Tampa Bay Rowdies win · 84%
Likely score: 3–0
A 84% home win. The market says 79%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Tampa Bay Rowdies84%79%+5
OursMarket
Draw11%14%−3
OursMarket
SC Jacksonville5%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 16% | 21% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Detroit City FC (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Indy Eleven (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v Miami FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at San Antonio FC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)4-0
SC Jacksonville
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 14 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)0-1
- Sep 30 · at Miami FC (A)1-4
- Sep 25 · v Loudoun United FC (H)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Hartford Athletic (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Tampa Bay Rowdies | SC Jacksonville |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.