Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:00 · FC Thun vs FC Lugano
Likeliest: FC Lugano win · 53%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Thun23%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
FC Lugano53%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Thun
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Schaffhausen (A)1-1
- Oct 15 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at FC Zürich (A)2-4
- Sep 20 · at FC Vaduz (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Servette FC (H)2-4
FC Lugano
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Pully Football (A)4-0
- Oct 15 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · v FC Luzern (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)4-0
- Sep 16 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | FC Thun | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 5-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.