Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split
Likeliest: HNK Hajduk Split win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Thun31%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
HNK Hajduk Split40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Thun
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Schaffhausen (A)1-1
- Oct 15 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at FC Zürich (A)2-4
- Sep 20 · at FC Vaduz (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Servette FC (H)2-4
HNK Hajduk Split
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v NK Varaždin (H)1-0
- Oct 15 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at HNK Rijeka (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Thun | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.