Swiss Super League (Switzerland) · Wed, Sep 16 · 17:00 · FC Thun vs Servette FC
Likeliest: Servette FC win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Thun33%34%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Servette FC42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Thun
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Sion (A)2-3
- Sep 2 · v FC Lausanne-Sport (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at FC St. Gallen 1879 (A)4-3
- Aug 27 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-2
Servette FC
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · at FC Lausanne-Sport (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)0-2
- Sep 3 · at FC Lugano (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v FC Luzern (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Thun | Servette FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.