J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
Likeliest: FC Tokyo win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Tokyo38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Kashiwa Reysol33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Tokyo
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)3-0
- Oct 7 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Gamba Osaka (A)2-0
Kashiwa Reysol
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-3
- Oct 14 · v Port FC (H)5-1
- Oct 9 · v Vissel Kobe (H)4-2
- Sep 23 · v FC Imabari (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Machida Zelvia (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.