J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 25 · 07:00 · FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock
Likeliest: FC Tokyo win · 68%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
FC Tokyo68%——
OursMarket
Draw19%——
OursMarket
Mito Hollyhock13%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Tokyo
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)3-0
- Oct 7 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Gamba Osaka (A)2-0
Mito Hollyhock
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Shimizu S-Pulse (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Kawasaki Frontale (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Tokyo | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.