Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Oct 7 · 10:00 · FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare
Likeliest: FC Tokyo win · 47%
A 29% draw. The market says 25%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Tokyo47%53%−7
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+4
OursMarket
Shonan Bellmare24%22%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 47% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Tokyo
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Gamba Osaka (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)3-0
Shonan Bellmare
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Imabari (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Tokyo | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.