J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 06:00 · FC Tokyo vs Urawa Red Diamonds
Likeliest: FC Tokyo win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Tokyo58%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Urawa Red Diamonds20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Tokyo
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 7 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Gamba Osaka (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-1
Urawa Red Diamonds
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 7 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Tokyo | Urawa Red Diamonds |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.