USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 00:00 · FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots SC
Likeliest: FC Tulsa win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Tulsa45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Oakland Roots SC27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Tulsa
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · at Lexington SC (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)1-1
- Oct 1 · v New Mexico United (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at El Paso Locomotive FC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Brooklyn FC (A)2-2
Oakland Roots SC
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v San Antonio FC (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Indy Eleven (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Lexington SC (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | FC Tulsa | Oakland Roots SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.