Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:30 · FC Twente vs ADO Den Haag
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 80%
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente80%77%+3
OursMarket
Draw11%14%−3
OursMarket
ADO Den Haag9%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 89% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 9 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-1
- Aug 27 · at Qarabağ (A)2-1
- Aug 20 · v Qarabağ (H)0-1
ADO Den Haag
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Feyenoord (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v FC Groningen (H)1-4
- Aug 8 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.