Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 30 · 15:45 · FC Twente vs AZ
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 49%
We make it 70% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente49%43%+6
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
AZ29%31%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 58% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Nov 22 · at FC Volendam (A)1-1
- Nov 7 · v Telstar (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at FC Groningen (A)1-1
- Oct 30 · at ROHDA Raalte (A)4-1
- Oct 26 · v Ajax (H)2-3
AZ
WinLossLossLossWin
- Nov 27 · v Shelbourne (H)2-0
- Nov 23 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-3
- Nov 9 · v PSV (H)1-5
- Nov 6 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.