Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 22 · 11:15 · FC Twente vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 55%
A 22% away win. The market says 16%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente55%63%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
FC Groningen22%16%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 37% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 80% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Feb 15 · at Telstar (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v SC Heerenveen (H)5-0
- Feb 3 · at AZ (A)1-2
- Jan 30 · at NAC Breda (A)2-2
- Jan 24 · v Excelsior (H)0-0
FC Groningen
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 14 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Jan 31 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
- Jan 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.