Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · FC Twente vs FC Thun
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 82%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 82% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente82%78%+4
OursMarket
Draw11%13%−2
OursMarket
FC Thun7%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-0
- Sep 9 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
FC Thun
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at FC Zürich (A)2-4
- Sep 20 · at FC Vaduz (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Servette FC (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Grasshopper Club Zürich (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Sion (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.