Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 15 · 11:15 · FC Twente vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 51%
A 25% away win. The market says 17%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente51%60%−10
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+2
OursMarket
FC Utrecht25%17%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 83% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 40% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 78% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)4-1
- Mar 1 · v Feyenoord (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v FC Groningen (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Telstar (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v SC Heerenveen (H)5-0
FC Utrecht
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Mar 6 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v AZ (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.