Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 14 · 13:30 · FC Twente vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 59%
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente59%67%−8
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles19%14%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 86% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 33% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 83% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Dec 7 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Nov 30 · v AZ (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at FC Volendam (A)1-1
- Nov 7 · v Telstar (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at FC Groningen (A)1-1
Go Ahead Eagles
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 11 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
- Dec 7 · at AZ (A)2-2
- Nov 30 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-2
- Nov 27 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-4
- Nov 22 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.