Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 25 · 19:00 · FC Twente vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 39%
A 36% away win. The market says 22%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente39%55%−16
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+2
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen36%22%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 78% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 45% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 71% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 10 · v FC Volendam (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Mar 15 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)4-1
NEC Nijmegen
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Apr 19 · at AZ (A)1-5
- Apr 12 · v Feyenoord (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Excelsior (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at PSV (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.