Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 10 · 17:45 · FC Twente vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 62%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente62%72%−11
OursMarket
Draw20%17%+3
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle19%11%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 89% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 28% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 87% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Dec 21 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
- Dec 18 · at Spakenburg (A)6-3
- Dec 14 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
- Dec 7 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Nov 30 · v AZ (H)1-0
PEC Zwolle
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 20 · at Excelsior (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Feyenoord (A)1-6
- Dec 3 · v AZ (H)1-3
- Nov 28 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.