Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 16 · 12:30 · FC Twente vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 68%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente68%77%−9
OursMarket
Draw19%14%+5
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle14%9%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 70% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 91% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 23% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 90% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Aug 13 · at DAC 1904 (A)3-3
- Aug 9 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v DAC 1904 (H)6-0
- Jul 30 · at Ferencváros TC (A)2-2
- Jul 23 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-2
PEC Zwolle
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 9 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-2
- May 17 · v Feyenoord (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-3
- May 3 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Apr 23 · at PSV (A)1-6
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.