Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:30 · FC Twente vs PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: PSV Eindhoven win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
PSV Eindhoven46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-0
- Sep 9 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-1
- Aug 27 · at Qarabağ (A)2-1
PSV Eindhoven
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Sep 10 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · at FC Utrecht (A)6-1
- Aug 23 · v FC Groningen (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.