Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 20 · 18:00 · FC Twente vs Qarabağ
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 72%
We make it 77% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente72%58%+14
OursMarket
Draw15%23%−8
OursMarket
Qarabağ13%18%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 77% | 58% | +20 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 82% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 42% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 77% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 76% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 16 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-1
- Aug 13 · at DAC 1904 (A)3-3
- Aug 9 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v DAC 1904 (H)6-0
- Jul 30 · at Ferencváros TC (A)2-2
Qarabağ
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Aug 13 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)2-0
- Aug 6 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)0-1
- Jul 30 · at CSKA Sofia (A)0-0
- Jul 23 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-0
- Jul 16 · at IF Vestri (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | Qarabağ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.