Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 7 · 19:00 · FC Twente vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen23%21%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 79% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 73% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 3 · at AZ (A)1-2
- Jan 30 · at NAC Breda (A)2-2
- Jan 24 · v Excelsior (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-0
- Jan 13 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
SC Heerenveen
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Feb 4 · at PSV (A)1-4
- Feb 1 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Jan 18 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Jan 15 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)3-1
- Jan 11 · v Feyenoord (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.