Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Wed, Sep 9 · 16:45 · FC Twente vs SC Telstar
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 50%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente50%75%−25
OursMarket
Draw25%15%+10
OursMarket
SC Telstar25%10%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 72% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 90% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 25% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 85% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 89% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-1
- Aug 27 · at Qarabağ (A)2-1
- Aug 20 · v Qarabağ (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-1
SC Telstar
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 6 · v SC Cambuur (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v AFC Ajax (H)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-1
- May 17 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | SC Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.