Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · FC Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 62%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Twente62%69%−7
OursMarket
Draw20%18%+2
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam18%13%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 67% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 87% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 31% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 84% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Twente
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- May 3 · at AZ (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Apr 10 · v FC Volendam (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
Sparta Rotterdam
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- May 3 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Apr 22 · at Telstar (A)1-4
- Apr 11 · v PSV (H)0-2
- Apr 5 · at NAC Breda (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Twente | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.