Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 24 · 17:30 · FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 40%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin40%28%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund37%44%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 46% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 72% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 39% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Jan 18 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
- Jan 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
- Dec 20 · at FC Köln (A)1-0
- Dec 12 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
Borussia Dortmund
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 20 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · v St. Pauli (H)3-2
- Jan 13 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-0
- Jan 9 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-3
- Dec 19 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Union Berlin form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record