Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Feb 6 · 19:30 · FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 52%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin52%45%+7
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−5
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 62% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Jan 31 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-3
- Jan 24 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-3
- Jan 18 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
- Jan 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Jan 31 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Jan 28 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-3
- Jan 21 · at Qarabağ (A)2-3
- Jan 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Union Berlin form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record