Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: FC Augsburg win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin32%36%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
FC Augsburg43%39%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 66% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 48% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
LossLossLossDrawWin
- May 10 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- May 2 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Apr 24 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-3
- Apr 18 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Heidenheim (A)1-3
FC Augsburg
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- May 9 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-1
- May 2 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-1
- Apr 25 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-1
- Apr 10 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.