DFB Pokal (Germany) · Wed, Dec 3 · 19:45 · FC Union Berlin vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 51%
A 27% home win. The market says 10%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin27%10%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%16%+6
OursMarket
FC Bayern München51%74%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 26% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 90% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 12% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Nov 29 · v Heidenheim (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at St. Pauli (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Nov 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · v DSC Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
FC Bayern München
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 29 · v St. Pauli (H)3-1
- Nov 26 · at Arsenal (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)6-2
- Nov 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
- Nov 4 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.