Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 2 · 13:30 · FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 41%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin41%39%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
FC Köln35%32%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 68% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 24 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-3
- Apr 18 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Heidenheim (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-4
FC Köln
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-2
- Apr 17 · at St. Pauli (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.