Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 10 · 14:30 · FC Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 51%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin51%44%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0527%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 42% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 56% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 63% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
LossLossLossWinWin
- Dec 20 · at FC Köln (A)1-0
- Dec 12 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-3
- Dec 3 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Nov 29 · v Heidenheim (H)1-2
FSV Mainz 05
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Dec 21 · v St. Pauli (H)0-0
- Dec 18 · v Samsunspor (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-2
- Dec 11 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-1
- Dec 5 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.