Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 29 · 14:30 · FC Union Berlin vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 66%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin66%57%+8
OursMarket
Draw18%24%−6
OursMarket
Heidenheim17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 50% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 43% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 76% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Nov 23 · at St. Pauli (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Nov 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · v DSC Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- Oct 24 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-1
Heidenheim
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Nov 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-3
- Nov 8 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-6
- Nov 1 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Oct 28 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.