Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Dec 12 · 19:30 · FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 29%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin40%29%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
RB Leipzig36%43%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 57% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 71% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 40% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 6 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-3
- Dec 3 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Nov 29 · v Heidenheim (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · at St. Pauli (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
RB Leipzig
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Dec 6 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Dec 2 · v Magdeburg (H)3-1
- Nov 28 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-0
- Nov 23 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-0
- Nov 8 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.