Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 5 · 13:30 · FC Union Berlin vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 46%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin46%45%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
St. Pauli27%25%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 38% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 45% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-4
- Mar 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-0
- Mar 8 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-4
- Feb 28 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-0
St. Pauli
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Mar 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.