Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 18 · 13:30 · FC Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 48%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Union Berlin48%44%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 60% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Union Berlin
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · at Heidenheim (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-4
- Mar 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-0
- Mar 8 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-4
VfL Wolfsburg
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 11 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)3-6
- Mar 21 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Union Berlin | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.