FA Cup (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · FC United of Manchester vs Altrincham
Likeliest: Altrincham win · 52%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC United of Manchester25%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Altrincham52%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC United of Manchester
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Altrincham (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Worksop Town FC (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Hyde United (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Ossett United (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at Garforth Town AFC (A)5-1
Altrincham
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v FC United of Manchester (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Aldershot Town (H)3-1
- Oct 3 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-3
- Sep 29 · at Gateshead (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Hornchurch (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | FC United of Manchester | Altrincham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.